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GEM-E3

The GEM-E3 (World and Europe versions) model is an applied general equilibrium model, simultaneously representing 38 World regions/28 European countries, which provides details on the macroeconomy and its interaction with the environment and the energy system. It covers all production sectors (aggregated to 26) and institutional agents of the economy. It is an empirical, large-scale model, written entirely in structural form. The model computes the equilibrium prices of goods, services, labor and capital that simultaneously clear all markets under the Walras law and determines the optimum balance for energy demand/supply and emission/abatement. Therefore, the model follows a computable general equilibrium approach. GEM-E3 is specifically designed to provide a high resolution of energy sectors and emissions of GHGs.

 GEM-E3 Manual


PRIMES

The PRIMES energy model simulates the European energy system and markets on a country-by-country basis and across Europe for the entire energy system. The model provides projections of detailed energy balances, both for demand and supply, CO2 emissions, investment in demand and supply, energy technology penetration, prices and costs. The model produces projections over the period from 2015 to 2050 in 5-years intervals. The data are based on Eurostat statistics for the years 2000-2010. The PRIMES model covers individual projections for the EU28 Member States, and also for Norway, Switzerland, Albania, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina, FYROM and Turkey. The PRIMES model simulates a multi-market equilibrium solution for energy supply and demand and for ETS and other potential markets by explicitly calculating prices which balance demand and supply. PRIMES simulates demand and supply behaviour by agent (sector) under different assumptions regarding economic development, emission and other policy constraints, technology change and other drivers. The simulation of agents behaviour is based on microeconomic founded modelling which includes technical – engineering oriented – constraints.

The PRIMES model has served to quantify energy outlook scenarios for DG TREN and DG ENER (Trends publications since 1990), impact assessment studies for DG ENV, DG MOVE, DG CLIMA and DG ENER and others, including Energy Roadmap to 2050 (2011-2012) and Policies to 2030 (2013). PRIMES has been also used at national level for governments, companies and other institutions including for EURELECTRIC in the Power Choices strategic study.

 PRIMES Model 2016-2017

 


PROMETHEUS

The PROMETHEUS model provides detailed projections of energy demand, supply, power generation mix, energy-related carbon emissions, energy prices and investment to the future covering the global energy system disaggregated into 10 major countries/regions.
PROMETHEUS contains relations and/or exogenous variables for all the main quantities, which are of interest in the context of general energy-economy-climate systems analysis. These include demographic and economic activity indicators, primary and final energy consumption by main fuel and region, power generation mix, hydrocarbon resources and international fossil fuel prices, CO2 emissions, greenhouse gases concentrations and technology dynamics for several energy technologies (including power generation options, car types and road transport, hydrogen production and end-use technologies). The model represents policy instruments for emission reduction, including both market-based instruments such as ETS carbon tax or cap and trade systems with differential application per region, and policies and measures focusing on specific carbon emitting activities.

PROMETHEUS is a self-contained large-scale world stochastic energy demand and supply model consisting of a large set of equations describing the time evolution of key variables, which are of interest in the context of a general analysis of the energy-environment-economic system. Equations in PROMETHEUS represent the model’s endogenous variables as a function of other endogenous variables, exogenous variables, parameters and residual terms. PROMETHEUS incorporates a recursive dynamic (partial equilibrium energy system) model with annual resolution currently serviced to run up to the year 2050. It has a triangular structure in order to avoid contemporaneous simultaneity. The model is organized in sub-models (modules), each one representing the behaviour of a representative agent, a demander and/or a supplier of energy.

Key characteristics of the model, that are particularly pertinent for performing the analysis of the implications of alternative climate abatement scenarios, include world supply/demand resolution for determining the prices of internationally traded fuels and technology dynamics mechanisms for simulating spill-over effects for technological improvements (increased uptake of a new technology in one part of the world leads to improvements through learning by experience which eventually benefits the energy systems in other parts of the World). PROMETHEUS is designed to provide long-term energy system projections and system restructuring up to 2050, both in the demand and the supply sides. The model can support impact assessment of specific energy and environment policies and measures, applied at regional and global level, including price signals, such as carbon taxation on GHG emissions, energy taxes and subsidies, energy efficiency promoting policies, RES supporting policies, timely provision of the required infrastructure, environmental policies and technology standards.

PROMETHEUS Model Description

 


Energy Demand and Supply model (EDS)

EDS is a large-scale energy demand and supply model that estimates the quantities demanded and supplied by the main energy system actors in an exhaustive manner, provides detailed projections for the structure of power generation, simulates the formation of prices in energy markets and incorporates energy related CO2 emissions, environmentally oriented policy instruments and emission abatement technologies. The model is designed both for medium-term and long-term projections and produces analytical quantitative results in the form of detailed energy balances for each country. The model can be used to forecast energy trends and analyze the implications of different policy assumptions, covering the time horizon up to 2030 (the time horizon can be extended to 2050). It is capable of supporting policy analysis in the fields of climate policies, assessments of investments in clean energy infrastructure, energy efficiency, access to modern energy services, energy pricing and promotion of low-carbon options.

The model has been used to provide detailed energy system and power generation projections by 2030 for each Middle East and North Africa country. The modelling tool can be easily adapted to simulate the evolution of energy demand and supply in other countries. The methodology can be used for the analysis of specific energy sectors and particularly for exploring implications of alternative investments in the power generation sector, which is covered in great detail taking into account a wide spectrum of technologies, load duration curves patterns, detailed cost estimates for each option and feedbacks of power supply with electricity demand (in terms of changes in electricity prices, investments in grid improvements, access of households, reduction of losses etc.).